Horse Racing Handicapping

Handicaps are races which bring together horses of varying levels of ability. The idea being that the better horses in the race carry more weight than the poorer horses. So in theory, if the official handicapper has done his job, all horses in a handicap will have an equal chance of winning, if they all run to the best of their ability.

Basically, a perfectly handicapped race would be one where all contestants cross the line in a dead-heat.

In so doing, the handicapper hopes to make the race exciting and competitive for the owners and other racing enthusiasts, as well as set an interesting challenge for the punters to solve.

Allocating the handicap The horse racing handicapping system has been centralised since 1973 and the handicappers, of whom there is a team of twelve who each have a specific remit - relating to age of the horse and distance raced over - are employed by the British Horseracing Authority. Phil Smith is Head of Handicapping and Dominic Gardiner-Hill is Deputy Head of Handicapping.

Key Handicapping points:

A horse must have run three times or, in certain circumstances, run once or twice including a win, before it will receive a handicap mark
Once a horse has received a handicap mark, it is eligible to run in handicaps
Each qualified horse will be allotted a handicap rating by the handicapper on a scale which runs from 0 upwards
The top Flat horses, who will contest the finishes of Group One Pattern races, would usually be rated in the 120s
The median rating for a horse on the Flat is currently 58
The top Jump horses, who will contest the finishes of Grade 1 Pattern races, would usually be rated in the 170s
The average rating for a horse over Jumps is 95
To check a horse’s rating in the race card or in the press, it will nearly always be referred to as the 'OR'(official rating).
The handicapper's job is to assess the performance of individual horses, and amend his rating of them accordingly. He will often use other horses as yardsticks by which to base the performance of a particular runner, and ratings can go up after a win or good run, or go down after a series of bad runs.

In Great Britain, approximately half of all races run are handicaps.

How the system operates

The handicap ratings of all horses are stored on Weatherbys’ computer at Wellingborough (Weatherbys carry out the administrative work for British Horseracing Authority). Every time a horse which has a rating runs, the handicapper must decide whether or not to amend its rating.

Each week, all such amendments, made after the evaluation of the results of all races run between Sunday and Saturday inclusive - whether in Britain or overseas - must be transmitted to Weatherbys by 7.00 the following Tuesday morning. The ratings are published on the British Horseracing Authority Racing Administration website later that day, and also appear in the Racing Calendar the following Thursday. The British Horseracing Authority Racing Administration website can only be used by licensed personnel (trainers, owners and jockeys) but weekly updates of the Handicap ratings can be view in our weekly Ratings section.

Once a horse’s rating has been published, the owner and trainer of the horse can identify those rating related races, both handicaps and non-handicaps (e.g. Classified Stakes and Rating Related Maidens), for which the horse is qualified.

These range from selling handicaps and low-grade Classified Stakes (non-handicap races for which qualification is determined by rating), for horses rated 0-45, right up to the top handicaps. Some of these are restricted to horses rated up to 110, although a few, like the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood, have no rating restriction.

Over Jumps, races range from 0-85 to 0-140+ with, like the Flat, a few handicaps which are unrestricted.

When the entries for a handicap are received by Weatherbys, the computer will convert the ratings into weights to be carried by the horses in a particular race. The ratings are calculated in units of 1lb, and the computer will assign the appropriate top weight to the highest-rated horse entered, and calculate the weights of all the other entries relative to that, so the actual weight is in relation to the rest of the runners ratings. For example, a horse rated 65 would carry 10lb more than a horse rated 55. A handicapper generally uses the weight of 1lb to equate to 1 length.

These weights will then be checked by the handicapper, who will also need to allocate a rating to any qualified entry which does not have a current rating. He will then send the finalised information back to Weatherbys, who will transmit the weights to the Racing Press.

Each race is a challenge for the handicapper as well as the punter. While the punter tries to predict the result, the handicapper must interpret what has happened in the race, and adjust his figures as necessary. After a handicap is run, the handicapper will probably have more dissatisfied customers than satisfied ones.

However, in his assessment of the result, he will strive to ensure that when the starter lets them go next time, every owner and trainer hopes and believes that today can be their day.

The Racing Post and Timeform both run their own rating figures against all horses, but these are not the horses’ official ratings. Only a rating awarded by the British Horseracing Authority is qualified as the horses official handicap mark, and is then used by the trainer and owner when making entries for the horse.

Key points to remember in Horse Racing Handicapping:

If you back horse number 1, you are backing the horse carrying the most weight, because the horse has been deemed by the handicapper to be the best horse in the race
1lb generally equates to 1 length in a race
One point of the weight scale is the equivalent to 1lb in weight. For example, Motivator was given a rating of 127 for his Vodafone Derby win in 2005. Authorized was given a rating of 126 for his Vodafone Derby win in 2007. If these two horses were to meet in a handicap on these ratings, Motivator would be considered to be 1lb better than Authorized. Therefore, if Motivator carried 9st 7lb, Authorized would have to carry 9st 6lb to see them supposedly cross the line together.

However, many horse racing handicapping analysts argue that the shorter the race the more significant the distance won by against weight. The following is a suggested adjustment table for the significance of winning distance against weight.

Distance to weight relationship

5 Furlong Races

1/2 a length 1 pound
3/4 length 2 pounds
1 length 3 pounds

6 - 8 Furlong Races

1/2 a length 1 pound
3/4 length 2 pounds
1 length 2 pounds

9 Furlong Races and further

1/2 a length no allowance
3/4 length 1 pound
1 length 1 pound

Breakdown of Races

Horses of different handicaps ratings are eligible to run in certain classes of race, restricted by the handicap rating they have. Flat racing has seven Classes, with Class 1 being of the highest grade, and Class 7 of the lowest. The classes are broken down with the following Handicap ranges:

Class 1 – Listed Handicaps of 96-110+
Class 2 – Heritage Handicaps, Handicaps of 86-100, 91-105 and 96-110, and Classified Stakes 0-95
Class 3 – Handicaps of 76-90, and 81-95 and Classified Stakes 0-85 and 0-90
Class 4 – Handicaps of 66-80, and 71-85
Class 5 – Handicaps of 56-70, and 61-75
Class 6 – Handicaps of 46-60, and 51-65
Class 7 – Classified Stakes 0-45

Jump racing has six classes, again, with Class1 being of the highest grade, and Class 6 of the lowest. The classes are broken down with the following Handicap ranges:

Class 1 – Pattern (Grade 1, 2 and 3) and Listed Races
Class 2 – Open Handicaps and Handicaps 0-140+
Class 3 – Handicaps of 0-120, and 0-135, and Novice Handicaps 0-120, and 0-135
Class 4 – Handicaps of 0-100, and 0-115, and Novice Handicaps 0-100 and 0-115
Class 5 – Handicaps of 0-85 and 0-95; Novice Handicaps of 0-85 and 0-95, and Classified Stakes0-85 and 0-95
Class 6 – National Hunt Flat Races and Hunters’ Steeple Chases Penalties

There are occasions when a horse will win a race after the weights for a future race the horse is entered to run in, have been allotted. In these cases a horse will be given a penalty for the up-coming race to take into account the improvement in the horse’s performance, which is not yet officially recognised due to the ratings only being updated weekly.

Out of the Handicap

When the handicapper is allotting weights against horses entered into a race, any horse that is set to be given a weight below the minimum weight advised in the race conditions, is known as being ‘out of the handicap’ and set to carry a weight that doesn’t reflect its true ability. This will often happen in Heritage Handicaps with a wide handicap band and a lot of entries. Weights are allotted prior to declaration stage, at which point a number of the higher weighted horses might come out of the race for various reasons. Therefore, the horse left with the highest weight is likely to be carrying less than the conditions of the race originally stipulated. This horse’s weight is then increased to match what the minimum top weight for the race can be, and all the horses below the top weight also see their weights increased accordingly, which can lead to a horse that was originally out of the handicap, receiving a weight which see it run on the correct handicap mark in relation to the field of runners.

Weight for Age Scales

Any races that are not Handicaps, and are not age restricted races, will operate with a weight-for age scale. The weight-for-age scale is another element to consider when analysing a race. The weight-for-age scale calculates what is thought to be the weight that the average horse in each age group falls short of due to maturity at different periods of the year and at different distances. Some people may believe a three-year-old colt can not make up for the weight-for-age allowance against a four-year-old colt. However, some may disagree and believe that the three-year-old in the race is a better horse than the four-year-old, and the lack of maturity is more than made up for by the weight-for-age allowance.

International

Horses trained outside Britain and Ireland are allowed to run in British handicap races, so long as they have a rating of at least 90, and horses that are bought in from abroad by owners and trainers are now given a rating using the evidence of their previous performances, so that they don’t have to wait to run three times before receiving a rating.

Handicap ratings are fundamental to the selection process for many of the world’s top races, such as the Dubai World Cup meeting, the Breeders Cup meeting and the Japan Cup, where handicappers from across the world form a committee to select the qualification and ratings of all the entered horses.

Anglo-Irish National Hunt Classifications and World Thoroughbred Racehorse Rankings

Every year the British Horseracing Authority handicapping team perform a key role in the production of the Anglo-Irish National Hunt Classifications. It is not a handicap but a retrospective measurement of the best sustainable performances in Britain and Ireland, and classifies the best steeplechasers and hurdlers. The Classifications are for all chasers and hurdlers down to a rating of 140, with the same for Novices. The steeplechasers are divided into distance categories of 2 miles, 2½ miles and 3 miles plus, and are included in the list in which category the handicappers believe they have put up their best performance. The hurdle categories are similar except that they are divided into two distances of 2 miles and 2½ miles plus. Juvenile Hurdlers are included in the Novice section.

The World Thoroughbred Racehorse Rankings (WTRR) are published twice a year, after each WTRR Conference, and reflect the overall ability of those horses included. The January publication includes the end of season assessments of horses aged three years old and upwards which have either raced in, or been trained in, countries whose racing season runs from 1st January to 31st December, while the August edition incorporates those horses which have raced in or been trained in countries who race from 1st August to 31st July (1st July to 30th June in South America). To merit inclusion, a horse must be assessed at a rating of 115 or higher by the Conference on its performances during the period under review. The IFHA World Thoroughbred Racehorse Rankings are the official end of season assessment of the top performers. In 1977, France, Great Britain and Ireland published the first internationally agreed assessment of racing merit on behalf of the European Pattern Committee under the banner of the International Classifications. In 1985, Germany and Italy joined the system, to be followed by North America (both Canada and the United States) and Japan in the mid 1990s. The International Classifications continued to expand, with more and more countries becoming involved. During 2003, responsibility for the Classifications was transferred from the European Pattern Committee to the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities, and the inaugural WTRR Conference (Hong Kong, December 2004) was attended by delegates from Argentina, Australia, Hong Kong, Macau, New Zealand, Singapore, South Africa and the United Arab Emirates, in addition to those from the eight countries who were first involved.

We hope you found this article interesting and informative. If so, you can obtain more free information by subscribing to our free newsletter. Sign up below to obtain more information on horse racing handicapping and other horse racing information to boost your horse racing profits.

Horse-Racing.UK.com Newsletter Sign-Up

www.Horse-Racing.UK.com